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外国网民评论：10年后中国将主宰全球经济吗？ [美国quora收藏
Steven Helferich Software Engineer at WorkdayAnswered 16h ago R26; Upvoted by Robin Daverman and Paul DenlingerIn some ways it already does. Just look at commodity consumption. China consumed in 2015:我认为中国已经做到了。单单就中国在2015年的大宗商品消费：54% of global Aluminum productionR03;54%的全球铝制品的产量48% of CopperR03;48%的铜45% of SteelR03;45%的钢铁31% of CottonR03;31%的棉花30% of RiceR03;30%的大米23% of GoldR03;23%的黄金22% of Corn22%的玉米50–70% of CoalR03;50%-70%的煤炭These are massive numbers. It’s frankly hard to describe these as anything more than “domination” of those markets.R03;这些巨大的数字，难道还不能说明中国已经主宰了这些市场么？
Now let’s move on to global trade:China is the world’s largest exporter by $600bn over the US.China is the world’s second largest importer behind only the US and ahead of Germany by $500bn.In terms of corporations:China is the only country in recent years besides the US to post companies in the list of largest companies by market capitalization.Chinese construction companies dominate the export of construction work to other parts of the world such as Africa.Chinese mining companies increasingly dominate the global mining industry.On top of all this China has it’s own version of the World Bank in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which currently excludes the US. China also recently announced the “One Belt One Road” initiative to lix the Asian economies more closely with China’s.现在让我们来谈谈全球贸易：中国是世界最大的出口国，比美国多出6000亿美元。中国是世界第二大进口国，仅次于美国，比德国多出5000亿美元。就企业而言：中国是近年来除美国以外唯一的一个让公司进入最大市值公司榜单的国家。中国建筑公司主导了对非洲等世界其他地区的建筑工程出口。中国矿业公司日益主导了全球采矿业。除此之外，中国拥有她自己的“世界银行”——目前不包括美国的亚洲基础设施投资银行。中国最近还倡导了“一带一路”，以使亚洲经济体与中国结合地更加紧密。
Who knows how well these will pan out in the future but the point is that China already dominates the world economy to a large extent in certain industries and by certain metrics. Obviously the US still represents the most well-balanced most diversified largest economy in the world with the largest consumer market and the deepest and most liquid financial markets but China is increasingly surpassing many of these metrics as well.If China continues to grow at rates above 3% annually makes progress at financial reform increases consumption and reduces infrastructure investment and debt accumulation then I would China is well-poised to dominate basically every part of the world economy in ten years time. However these are strong assumptions and frankly China has not shown very much progress on most of these under the current administration.谁知道这些在未来会有多好，但关键是中国已经在某些行业和某些指标上在很大程度上主导了世界经济。显然，美国仍然是世界上最平衡、最多样化的最大经济体，拥有最大的消费市场和最深刻、最具流动性的金融市场，但中国也正在越来越多地超过这些指标。如果中国继续以高于每年3%的速度增长，在金融改革方面取得的进展，增加消费，并减少基础设施投资和债务积累，那么在未来的10年时间里，我预计中国一定会在世界经济的每一个部分都能占据主导地位。然而，这些都是强假设，坦率地说，在本届政府任内，中国在大多数方面都没有取得太大的进展。
中国只是一个发展中国家，你们不要捧杀他。让他静静的发展
Paul Denlinger Have lived in China Taiwan and Hong K fluent in Mandarin (written spoken)Answered 18h agoPaul Denlinger曾在中国台湾和香港居住;普通话很流利（书面及口语）I am not sure that the Chinese economy will dominate the global economy but I am sure that a few Chinese companies will achieve deep penetration of the global economy and become global leaders.我不确定中国经济是否会主宰全球经济，但我确信一些中国企业将会深入渗透全球经济，成为全球领头羊。The one I am sure about is Tencent.The rest I don’t know.我可以确信的是腾讯将占有一席之地。剩下的我就不清楚了。
东风21爆lz菊花
Randall Burns BA Economics University of Chicago (1981)Answered 12h agoRandall Burns芝加哥大学经济学文学士（1981）China has become a manufacturing powerhouse. That trend seems to be continuing the next 10 years with their major robotic initiative.中国已成为制造业王国。并且随着他们机械自动化的发展，这种趋势似乎在未来十年持续下去。Inside China’s effort to replace millions of manufacturing workers with robots中国正在努力用机器代替数百万的制造工人。However there is more to truly dominating the global economy than just manufacturing. Right now China is largely following a path pioneered by countries like South Korea and Japan. Japan stalled when it came to becoming a powerhouse of innovation rather than refinement of products. Can China avoid that fate?然而，仅仅只是制造业并不能真正能主宰全球经济。现在中国在很大程度上正在走一条类似韩国、日本等国走过的老路。当日本以创新为主代替产品制造时，日本就停滞不前了。中国可以避免这个命运吗？
China has very real problems with corruption. It may be able to get around that but that is a serious issue when it comes to expanding into certain market niches.中国有一个很现实的问题，那就是腐败。它可能能够解决，但当涉及到扩展市场的时候这是一个严峻的问题。China has entered into uncharted territory with its high male to female ratio.由于其极高的男女比例，中国已经进入一个不明确的阶段。How the Woman/Man Ratio Affects Sex Facial Hair and Politics女/男比例如何影响性别，面部毛发和政治(Discover上的一篇文章)That will peak in 10–15 years and there may be serious potential for social turmoil as a result.这个现象将在10 - 15年内达到顶峰，结果可能会有严重的社会动荡隐患。China’s scientific infrastructure is pretty limited compared to even the Soviet unx at its peak. It will take a long time to build anything like that.中国的科学基础设施相对来说相当有限，甚至与苏联的巅峰时期相比也是如此。建立这样的设施需要很长时间。China is obviously very important in the world economy and will continue to be so. I would not characterize its current or 10 year role as domination just yet.显然中国在世界经济中扮演重要的角色，并将继续下去。但是我还是不会把它现在或十年后的位置定位为统治。
完结，撒花。
歪果仁评论真少
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【相关文章推荐】外国网友讨论：印度和中国谁会是下一个超级大国
近期有人在Quora上提出了一个比较有趣和谈论了很久的话题，那就是作为亚洲的两个人口大国，中国和印度，到底谁才是未来的超级大国呢？下面看看外国网友是如何回答的。
Who will be the next superpower – India or China?
谁会成为下一个超级大国，印度还是中国？
美版知乎Quora网友讨论？
Sanjit Kumar, Asst. Professor at Magadh University
Answered May 18
It will be China first, followed by India later.
Let me remind you Marshall Plan which directly establish America, a superpower after World War II.
This project costs approx $13.3 billion and completed within 4 years.
The amount was invested to rebuild war-devastated European regions, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, make Europe prosperous.
中国会先崛起为超级大国，接着是印度
提醒你以前的马歇尔计划。二战后，马歇尔计划直接让美国成为了超级大国
该计划耗资大约133亿美元，4年内完成
这笔资金被用来重建被战争摧毁的欧洲地区，清除贸易障碍，建立现代化工业，让欧洲繁荣了起来。
For the United States, the Marshall Plan provided markets for American goods, created reliable trading partners, and supported the development of stable democratic governments in Western Europe.
Now, lets discuss to Belt and Road Initiative
China already did a revolution in cheap manufacturing, so they need bigger market for their product.
Hence, the countries from which one belt-one road is passing through, their market will be over-captured by Chinese goods.
对美国来说，马歇尔计划为美国商品提供了市场，建立了可靠的贸易伙伴，支撑了西欧的民主政府的稳定发展。
现在来讨论一带一路计划。
中国已经进行另一场低廉制造业的革命，需要为本国商品寻找更庞大的市场。
因此，一带一路经过的国家，他们的市场会被中国商品占领。
How China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Compares to the Marshall Plan?
Marshall Plan stated that European countries being aided should accept U.S. investment and import U.S. goods.
Over time, the U.S. dollar has become a tool for stability. China is also seeking to increase the international use of its currency.
The endpoint of OBOR is located in Europe. It shows that China wishes to intensify relations with traditional U.S. allies in Western Europe, which in turn undermines U.S. influence in the region.
中国“一带一路”计划和马歇尔计划有什么不同？
马歇尔计划规定，接受援助的欧洲国家，应接受美国投资，并进口美国商品。
久而久之，美元成为了稳定的工具。
目前，中国也在寻求增加人民币的国际使用。
一带一路计划的终点是欧洲。
这表明，中国希望加强美国在西欧的传统盟友的关系
India position between all these drama.
印度在其中的位置。
India is pushing its own North–South Transport Corridor
印度正在追求自己的南北运输走廊。
Japan is expected to join the Indian foray into the expansion of Iran’s Chabahar port and the adjoining special economic zone.
In eastern Sri Lanka, India & Japan are expected to jointly expand the strategically located Trincomalee port. They are also likely to join hands to develop Dawei port along the Thai-Myanmar border.
日本预计会与印度一道参与伊朗恰巴哈尔港及其毗邻经济特区的扩大计划。
在东边的斯里兰卡，印度和日本有望联合扩大地处战略位置的亭可马里港口。
Declining Power:
Presently, China has a strength of $10.87 trillion where as India has $3 trillion.
It is expected to overcome China by 2050.
China experienced a meteoric rise in its economy, reaching years of continued growth in excess of 10 percent. Those days are over.
目前，中国经济规模为10.87万亿美元，而印度为3万亿美元
不过印度有望在2050年前超过中国
中国经济经历了一次迅速崛起，过去那些年头持续以两位数的速度增长。这样的好日子结束了。
China’s most recent quarterly growth was just under 7 percent, with projections continuing to decline over the next decade and beyond.
中国最近的经济增速不到7%，增速在未来10多年可能继续放缓。
Sustaining the growth of China’s military and economic power will become more difficult, and will soon begin a slow and potentially unrecoverable decline.
维持中国军事和经济发展会变得越来越困难，很快会开启一个缓慢而又不可恢复的衰退。
And, then India will start playing her role. So, China will become superpower but will not be able to sustain for long.
Thanks for reading such a long post.
到时候就是轮到印度登台亮相了
所以，中国会崛起为超级大国，不过不会长久。
Aaron Manuel, former I Am Just Another Engineer
Updated May 28
I think India will be the next super power only if India is prevented from fudging data like how the Chinese did
WHY NOT CHINA ? :
1)China has a massive bubble economy =It is on the verge of collapsing .It has for years manipulated and inflated the numbers in various provinces .It’s actual growth rate is below 4%
我觉得，唯有印度不再像中国人那样杜撰数据，印度才会崛起为下一个超级大国
为什么不是中国？
1、中国经济存在巨大泡沫，正处在崩溃的边缘。
不同省份虚报数据。真实经济增速不到4%
2)Less exports will hurt the already fragile Chinese economy = Growth in many western countries are saturated .With the presidency of Trump ,the Americans are going to impose more import duties on Chinese products to help their economy and to create more jobs in America but these increased import duties will badly hurt the cheap export industries .Since Chinese depends on their exports and has a major share on their G.D.P ,declining exports will make the Chinese government to cut spending on social welfare
3)Aging population of China =Less workforce
Because of the one Child policy ,the growth rate and demands are going to go down ,With more and more people joining the above 70 camp ,the welfare spending and pension programes will dent a huge in the already dwindling reserves ***
3.不断老龄化的中国人口，意味着劳动力减少
由于中国以前实行独生子女政策，所以经济增速会放缓，需求也会减少。
随着70岁以上人口越来越多，养老开支会造成巨大负担。
4)China’s ghost cities
This is one of 1000s of many hastily built ghost cities but no one is occupying it .That means the real estate markets are already down and this is how the Spanish economy collapsed in
.It is just a matter of time
4、中国的鬼城
这是中国很多鬼城中的一座，没有人居住
这意味着，房地产市场已经在走下坡路。
年，西班牙经济就是这样崩溃的。时间问题而已
Katharina Sikorski, worked at India
Answered Wed
China will not be a next superpower – there is no need to become one. China already is a global superpower. India is not.
While Indian media are full of “we will become superpower” and “India-China comparison” articles (and this has been a discourse well over a decade now), the Chinese media do not bother – India is not considered a competitor or an equal partner:
中国不会成为下一个超级大国的
中国没有必要啊，已经是超级大国了啊，而印度不是
印度媒体大篇幅报道“我们会成为超级大国”，大肆对比印度和中国。
过去10多年一直津津乐道。
而中国媒体压根就不在乎，印度并未被视为竞争者
Pavan Addanki, Indian forever !!
Answered May 30
As an Indian, I am fascinated by China and what is stands for in the modern world today. I keep reading stories of comparisons of India’s and China’s economy. Many have predicted that both will become bitter rivals in the near future and will aim to outdo the other. Some say that China already has a head start over India as it opened it’s economy very early, while India was late. Many say that China’s economy is many years ahead and it will take years for India to catch up with it.
作为印度人，我对中国着迷了。中国代表当今现代世界。
我一直读有关中印经济比较的文章。
许多人预测，两国在近期会成为竞争对手，预测两国都会致力于超过对方。
有些人说，中国对印度有着先发优势，因为中国很早就开放了经济，而印度动作迟缓。
许多人说，中国经济领先很多年，印度需要很多年来追赶。
But that depends on whether India really wants to catch up with China.
这取决于印度是否真的想要追赶中国
No one can accurately predict the future and how conditions will be (except if you are Nostradamus). But as an Indian, I can tell you one thing. I really don’t care if China stays ahead of India in the long run. As an Indian, I am focussed only on India and looking for ways and means to make my country a heaven. Our politicians are focussed on making India a better place for present and future generations. They work tirelessly day and night to ensure better governance and more opportunities and economic freedom for our citizens. What matters is not whether our neighbour is a super power or not. What matters is that the citizens of our country stay happy, healthy, peaceful and prosperous.
没有人能准确预测未来。
作为印度人，我要说自己真的不在乎中国是否领先印度。
作为印度人，我只关注印度，致力于寻找方法让国家成为天堂。
我关注的是我们的政客是否为子孙后代建设美好的国家。
是否孜孜不倦地工作，是否为公民创造更多机会和经济自由。
邻国是否是超级大国，对我来说并不重要。
重要的是我们公民幸福健康、和平繁荣。
Ashwin Kosaraju, Legal writer at Government of India (2016-present)
Answered May 18
Originally Answered: Who will be the next superpower, India or China?
Technically China is already a superpower, (permanent veto member of the UN) and India is becoming a super power, in terms of military strength, naval capacity, army reserves, nuclear warheads, GDP, and so on. It will take quite a few years before we can catch up.
从技术指标来说，中国已经是超级大国，是拥有否决权的联合国常任理事国
从军事力量、海军实力、预备役和核弹头、GDP等指标来看，印度正崛起为超级大国
要赶上去，我们还要很多年
责任编辑：
声明：本文由入驻搜狐号的作者撰写，除搜狐官方账号外，观点仅代表作者本人，不代表搜狐立场。
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今日搜狐热点美国知乎，网友问，印度落后中国多少年？我能躺在床上笑一天！美国知乎，网友问，印度落后中国多少年？我能躺在床上笑一天！新闻女郎百家号闲话不多说，众所周知，中国和印度都是世界上的人口大国。根据权威数据，截止到2016年，中国人口总数是13.75亿，印度总人口已经到了13.24亿了。哇呼，看来再过几年，印度就成为人口第一大国了！头条的网友们，爱我，你怕了吗？大家都知道，中国和印度都是亚洲国家中经济增长速度特别快的国家，我们和印度在世界上的影响力都非常大！于是就有一个美国网民，在美国知乎Quora网站上，问印度落后中国多少年？印度？惹不起，惹不起，开启挂来，一个能顶十个！各位网友姥爷，还是看看国外的网友，对这个问题是如何回答的吧！看来印度人还是有自知之明的嘛，至于三十年有些夸张了，二十年还算可以的嘛!不知道各位头条的姥爷们，对此有什么精彩又独特的见解呢？希望大家积极留言，期待你们的独到见解哦！喜欢世界网民的精彩评论的话，记得关注小编的头条号“世界野狐谈”哦！也记得点赞哦！本文仅代表作者观点，不代表百度立场。系作者授权百家号发表，未经许可不得转载。新闻女郎百家号最近更新：简介:文艺青年
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