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为什么说低油价将持续？
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&爱思英语编者按：近几个月的实际情况表明，从饱受战争创伤的伊拉克石油企业，到美国页岩油生产商，全世界的石油公司都没有被低油价吓得止步不前。生产和勘探仍在继续进行。
Leaders from some of the world&s most productive oil-exporting nations will meet this week in Vienna, just as oil prices have begun to stabilize at around $60 per barrel.
As we near peak summer driving season, American s would have worried a generation ago that such a meeting would be an impetus for a pullback in production, with oil exporters aiming to raise prices by limiting . But the world has changed a great deal since the height of OPEC&s power in 1979, when member nations accounted for 50% of global oil production, compared with less than one-third today.
When Fortune published its report on the collapse of oil prices in February,
like Jeremy Grantham told us that oil would be heading back to a price per barrel of more than $100 in the long run. Other analysts, like economist Nouriel Roubini, argued that cheap oil would last just a year or 18 months before producers like Saudi Arabia had fully flushed out higher-cost competitors like shale producers here in the U.S.
While there&s still time for Roubini&s ion to come true, the intervening months have shown that producers around the world&from emd drillers in war-torn Iraq, to shale concerns here in the U.S.&aren&t being scared off by cheap prices. Here are four reasons why we can expect the era of cheap oil to continue, even as Americans consume more gasoline this summer.
1. Low interest rates mean cheap money for American producers.A report in The Wall Street Journal Sunday showed that despite falling prices,
are still eager to fund oil exploration and extraction s here in the U.S. With interest rates so low and
searching for anything that will provide decent returns, even oil companies facing high costs of production and low
prices are having no problem getting funding:
&As crude prices began to plunge last year, many energy experts ed a repeat of 1986 when U.S. oil companies lost their funding and the industry collapsed into a yearslong bust. Without money, companies had to slow or even stop drilling for the crude that helped create a global glut. Many were forced to sell out to rivals or go bankrupt.&
&But the gloomy scenario of that downturn hasn&t played out on a large scale this time. That is because banks, private-equity firms and institutional
have continued to pour money into the sector even as oil companies slashed billions of dollars in spending from their budgets and laid off more than 100,000 workers.&
2. Saudi Arabia has no choice but to keep pumping.Long gone are the days when Saudi Arabia acted as the so-called &swing producer& in the global oil , when it would increase or decrease production to keep prices stable and profits high. A report in The New York Times delves into what has changed in the Middle Eastern kingdom over the last generation. For one, political in has made maintaining employment in the oil industry more important than keeping
revenues from oil sales high. Second, the explosion in oil production elsewhere in the world means that Saudi Arabia&s production just isn&t as
as it once was. And finally, over the previous 30 years, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on selling lower quality oil as its
of &sweeter& crude has dwindled. To facilitate this, the kingdom has invested in its refinery capabilities, and that investment demands that it keep the oil flowing, even amid falling prices.
3.Iran&s oil could soon hit the global . If Iran and the United States finalize an
on the latter&s nuclear enrichment program and lift an embargo against Iranian oil, we would see another increase in global . Analysts
that a -free Iran could add another 1 million barrels per day of oil to global
by 2016, providing a
cushion if U.S. shale producers end up running out of financing.
4. Renewable energy continues to get cheaper.Earlier this month, an unnamed Saudi official told The Financial Times, &Saudi Arabia wants to
the age of oil&. We want oil to continue to be used as a major
of energy and we want to be the major producer of that energy.& That logic is another reason why OPEC countries have less of an incentive to cut back production: renewable energy s is starting to give fossil fuels some serious competition, and oil-exporting countries have an interest in keeping oil a cheap alter.
It&s often said that cheap oil will not
the rise of renewables like solar because oil is used mainly to power things like automobiles, while renewables are mostly used for electricity generation. But expensive oil has been a boon to products like electric cars, too.
announced last month, for instance, that for the first time ever loyalty rates for electric car owners fell below 50%. &For better or worse, it looks like many hybrid and EV owners are driven more by financial motives rather than a
director of industry analysis Jessica Caldwell.
本周，全球几大产油国的领导人将在维也纳会面。几乎同时，油价开始在每桶60美元左右企稳。
随着夏季驾车出行高峰临近，消费者可能会担心本次会谈将重现30多年前的场景：旨在通过限制供给提高油价的各石油出口国将推动原油产量下降。但今时不同往日，1979年石油输出国组织（OPEC）曾权倾一时，占全球石油产量的一半，相比之下，目前其石油产量只占全球不到三分之一。
今年2月份，《财富》杂志曾对油价暴跌进行过报道，当时，资深价值投资者杰里米&格兰瑟姆等人告诉我们，长期来看油价会回到每桶100美元以上。其他分析人士，比如经济学家鲁比尼等认为，低油价只会延续一年或一年半，沙特等产油国只是借此挤压美国页岩油生产商等高成本的竞争对手。
鲁比尼的预言能否成真还要一段时间才能见分晓。不过，近几个月的实际情况表明，从饱受战争创伤的伊拉克石油企业，到美国页岩油生产商，全世界的石油公司都没有被低油价吓得止步不前。就算今年夏天美国汽油消费量上升，我们仍然认为低油价时代不会很快结束，原因有以下四点。
1. 低利率意味着美国石油生产商的资金成本不高。《华尔街日报》上周日指出，尽管油价不断下跌，投资者仍然很愿意为美国的石油勘探和精炼提供资金。因为利率偏低，投资者正在寻求各种稳健的投资渠道，就连成本高价格低的石油公司都不存在融资问题：
&去年原油价格开始暴跌时，许多能源专家都预计1986年的情景将重现。当时美国石油企业资金断流，行业低谷持续了好几年。资金匮乏的石油公司只能放慢生产速度，甚至停产，而美国石油正是全球供给过剩的原因之一。许多公司都被迫出售给竞争对手，要么就得破产。&
&然而本轮油价暴跌后，并未大规模出现当年行业下滑时的惨状。因为银行、私募股权公司和机构投资者的资金源源不断地涌向石油领域，哪怕石油生产商削减数十亿美元预算又裁员逾十万人，也挡不住投资的热情。&
2. 沙特除了继续产油别无选择。沙特曾在全球石油市场扮演&产量调节器&的角色，可以通过增减产来保持油价稳定并赚取高额利润，如今时移世易。《纽约时报》刊登的一篇文章深入探讨了几十年来沙特的变化。首先，由于政局不稳，与政府继续用石油赚取大笔收入相比，保持石油行业就业水平更加重要；其次，世界其他地区产油量激增，沙特生产的石油不再像过去那样重要；最后，在过去30年中，随着低硫原油产量下降，沙特越发依赖于出口质量较低的石油。为此，沙特一直投资提高石油精炼产能。正是这项投资需求促使沙特即便在油价不断下跌的情况下，也得继续产油。
3. 伊朗的石油可能很快进入国际市场。如果伊朗和美国就核问题达成正式协议，从而解除石油禁运，全球原油供应就会进一步上升。分析师估算，到2016年，解禁后的伊朗可能会让全球石油日供应量增加100万桶。届时如果美国页岩油企业资金耗尽，伊朗的石油将为市场供应提供缓冲。
4. 可再生能源越发廉价。本月初，《金融时报》引述某位未具名沙特官员的话称：&沙特希望石油时代延续下去&&希望石油仍是主要能源，也希望沙特仍是主要产油国。&这也是OPEC成员国减产动力不大的另一个原因，即可再生能源已经开始让化石燃料面临真正的竞争，而产油国愿意维持石油的廉价能源地位。
人们经常说，低油价不会妨碍太阳能等可再生能源崛起，因为石油主要为汽车等机器提供动力，而可再生能源大多用于发电。然而，高油价也是电动汽车等产品的福音。举例来说，美国汽车信息网站上个月报道，电动汽车的用户忠诚度有史以来首次跌至50%以下。Edmunds产业分析总监杰西卡&考德威尔表示：&不管怎么说，现在看来许多混合动力车以及电动汽车车主换车就是为了省钱，而不是出于保护环境的责任感。&
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对世界上大多数国家来说，油价低是件好事。但据牛津经济研究院的一份报告表明，特别值得为此高兴的既不是美国也不是中国，而是亚洲的非产油国菲律宾。
菲律宾会欣喜不已；而挪威，很不幸，将面临一段艰难时光。
这就是牛津经济研究院的两项发现。该机构最近正在研究低油价对世界经济的影响，而且认为自己已经找到了答案。
牛津经济研究院这篇报告名为《石油百科》。它的开篇写道：“本报告的作用正如题目所示，旨在让人们全面地了解油价下跌所能带来的影响。”作者写道，如果有人在这篇报告里找不到自己想要的东西，他们将很乐意提供这篇共17页、含有11个变量的数据表（我拿到了这份资料，它确实很全面）。
本文顶端的那张图便来自于这篇报告中的数据，它反映了低油价事件中损失最大以及获利最多的国家。对世界上大多数国家来说，油价低是件好事。大多数国家都会受益。而且许多受益国目前就可以对此加以利用，比如法国、巴西和中国。同时，俄罗斯、沙特以及挪威（没错，是挪威）的处境相当严峻。不过，就算合在一起，受损国在全球经济中的比重也不大。
要说明一下，这张图体现的是2015年的情形，而且其前提是油价为每桶40美元。也就是说，该油价比当前的水平更低一些，而且需要在这个价位上保持一段时间。同时，为什么菲律宾的表现会大大超出其他国家，我们很难给出理由。我询问了一位参与此项研究的经济学家，他也解释不了。的确，菲律宾不是产油国，或者说石油产量不高；它还是个岛国，得靠进口来满足国内需求。然而，按照牛津经济研究院的模型，低油价给另一个岛国日本带来的益处就非常少。
对此，其中的一个解释是，该机构考虑了油价对货币政策的潜在影响。油价滑坡会带动通胀下行，菲律宾有可能借此下调利率（目前为4%）。日本的利率已经低得不能再低，因此通胀的减轻不会有什么提振作用。此外，发展中国家的效率较低，因此相对于其人口而言，菲律宾的石油需求较高。
因此，我们在看待这些数据时应持保留态度。但该报告的主题似乎是准确的，那就是总的来说，油价下跌后全球局势看起来相当好。
那么，市场为何如此排斥油价下跌呢？油价下降造成的损失集中在石油和天然气行业，或者说受损企业一般都是大型公司。很明显，埃克森等公司将受到打击。同时，低油价的有利影响覆盖了整个消费领域。至于哪些公司将从中受益，我们很难给出定论。此外，牛津经济研究院的模型并未考虑可能出现的金融危机。也就是说，如果集中在俄罗斯身上的问题影响到了其他金融市场，就像1998年那样，麻烦就可能变大。
这项研究还表明，市场的负面反应有过度之嫌。实际上，油价下降可能为美国贡献了近1%的GDP，并有可能让美国的经济增长率提高0.25个百分点。这是件好事。然而在目前，市场似乎忽略了这一点。（财富中文网）
译者：Charlie
审稿：李翔
The Philippines is going to crush it. And Norway, unfortunately, is in for some hard times.
That’s just two of the findings from research firm Oxford Economics, which recently set out to determine what cheap oil would mean for the world’s economy. And they think they figured it out.
Oxford’s report is titled “Oil-ipedia!” and says at the top, “This note does what it says on the tin—it provides much of what you need to about the impact of oil price declines.” And the authors write that if you don’t see what you want, they will be happy to send you their 17-page, 11-variable spreadsheet. (I’ve got it. It’s comprehensive.)
The chart at the top of this article is from data in the report and it looks at what countries will lose and gain the most from cheap oil. For most countries around the world, cheap oil is a good thing. Most countries benefit. And many of the countries getting a boost could use it these days: France, Brazil, and China. Meanwhile, the pain in Russia, Saudi Arabia, and, yes, Norway, is pretty severe. Still, even combined, the net losers do not make up a large part of the world’s economy.
Some caveats: This chart is based on what will happen in 2015 if oil is at $40 a barrel. So prices would have to drop a bit more from their current levels and stay there for a while. Also, it’s hard to determine why the Philippines does so much better than everyone else. I asked one of the economists who worked on Oxford’s research, and he couldn’t explain. Yes, the Philippines doesn’t produce oil, or a lot of it, and it’s an island nation that has to import what it wants. But Japan, another island nation, gets a very little boost from low oil prices in Oxford’s model.
One explanation is that Oxford includes the effect that oil prices could have on monetary policy. Lower oil prices would cause inflation to drop and potentially allow the Philippines to lower its 4% interest rate. Japan’s interest rates are already as low as they can go, so no boost from lower inflation there. What’s more, developing nation’s are less efficient, so the Philippines has a greater demand for oil relative to its population.
So, take the data with a grain of salt. But the general thesis appears to be accurate: A world with lower oil generally looks pretty good.
Then why have markets reacted so negatively to the drop in oil? The losses from lower oil prices are concentrated in the oil and gas sector and generally among larger companies. And it’s pretty clear that Exxon XOM 1.01% and some others are going to take a hit. Meanwhile, the gains from low oil prices are spread out to consumers everywhere. Which companies will benefit is harder to determine. And Oxford’s model doesn’t factor in potential financial crises. So, if Russia’s concentrated problems boil over, as they did in 1998, to other financial markets, then you could see wider problems.
Oxford’s research also suggests that the markets appear to be overreacting negatively. In fact, lower oil prices could add nearly 1 percentage point to U.S. GDP, potentially increasing growth by a quarter. That’s a good thing. Right now, the market seems to be ignoring that.
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