外国网友讨论：印度和中国谁会是下一个超级大国
外国网友讨论：印度和中国谁会是下一个超级大国
近期有人在Quora上提出了一个比较有趣和谈论了很久的话题，那就是作为亚洲的两个人口大国，中国和印度，到底谁才是未来的超级大国呢？下面看看外国网友是如何回答的。Who will be the next superpower – India or China?谁会成为下一个超级大国，印度还是中国？美版知乎Quora网友讨论？Sanjit Kumar, Asst. Professor at Magadh UniversityAnswered May 18It will be China first, followed by India later.Let me remind you Marshall Plan which directly establish America, a superpower after World War II.This project costs approx $13.3 billion and completed within 4 years.The amount was invested to rebuild war-devastated European regions, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, make Europe prosperous.中国会先崛起为超级大国，接着是印度提醒你以前的马歇尔计划。二战后，马歇尔计划直接让美国成为了超级大国该计划耗资大约133亿美元，4年内完成这笔资金被用来重建被战争摧毁的欧洲地区，清除贸易障碍，建立现代化工业，让欧洲繁荣了起来。For the United States, the Marshall Plan provided markets for American goods, created reliable trading partners, and supported the development of stable democratic governments in Western Europe.Now, lets discuss to Belt and Road InitiativeChina already did a revolution in cheap manufacturing, so they need bigger market for their product.Hence, the countries from which one belt-one road is passing through, their market will be over-captured by Chinese goods.对美国来说，马歇尔计划为美国商品提供了市场，建立了可靠的贸易伙伴，支撑了西欧的民主政府的稳定发展。现在来讨论一带一路计划。中国已经进行另一场低廉制造业的革命，需要为本国商品寻找更庞大的市场。因此，一带一路经过的国家，他们的市场会被中国商品占领。How China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Compares to the Marshall Plan?Marshall Plan stated that European countries being aided should accept U.S. investment and import U.S. goods.Over time, the U.S. dollar has become a tool for stability. China is also seeking to increase the international use of its currency.The endpoint of OBOR is located in Europe. It shows that China wishes to intensify relations with traditional U.S. allies in Western Europe, which in turn undermines U.S. influence in the region.中国“一带一路”计划和马歇尔计划有什么不同？马歇尔计划规定，接受援助的欧洲国家，应接受美国投资，并进口美国商品。久而久之，美元成为了稳定的工具。目前，中国也在寻求增加人民币的国际使用。一带一路计划的终点是欧洲。这表明，中国希望加强美国在西欧的传统盟友的关系India position between all these drama.印度在其中的位置。India is pushing its own North–South Transport Corridor印度正在追求自己的南北运输走廊。Japan is expected to join the Indian foray into the expansion of Iran’s Chabahar port and the adjoining special economic zone.In eastern Sri Lanka, India & Japan are expected to jointly expand the strategically located Trincomalee port. They are also likely to join hands to develop Dawei port along the Thai-Myanmar border.日本预计会与印度一道参与伊朗恰巴哈尔港及其毗邻经济特区的扩大计划。在东边的斯里兰卡，印度和日本有望联合扩大地处战略位置的亭可马里港口。Declining Power:Presently, China has a strength of $10.87 trillion where as India has $3 trillion.It is expected to overcome China by 2050.China experienced a meteoric rise in its economy, reaching years of continued growth in excess of 10 percent. Those days are over.目前，中国经济规模为10.87万亿美元，而印度为3万亿美元不过印度有望在2050年前超过中国中国经济经历了一次迅速崛起，过去那些年头持续以两位数的速度增长。这样的好日子结束了。China’s most recent quarterly growth was just under 7 percent, with projections continuing to decline over the next decade and beyond.中国最近的经济增速不到7%，增速在未来10多年可能继续放缓。Sustaining the growth of China’s military and economic power will become more difficult, and will soon begin a slow and potentially unrecoverable decline.维持中国军事和经济发展会变得越来越困难，很快会开启一个缓慢而又不可恢复的衰退。And, then India will start playing her role. So, China will become superpower but will not be able to sustain for long.Thanks for reading such a long post.到时候就是轮到印度登台亮相了所以，中国会崛起为超级大国，不过不会长久。谢谢Aaron Manuel, former I Am Just Another EngineerUpdated May 28I think India will be the next super power only if India is prevented from fudging data like how the Chinese didWHY NOT CHINA ? :1)China has a massive bubble economy =It is on the verge of collapsing .It has for years manipulated and inflated the numbers in various provinces .It’s actual growth rate is below 4%我觉得，唯有印度不再像中国人那样杜撰数据，印度才会崛起为下一个超级大国为什么不是中国？1、中国经济存在巨大泡沫，正处在崩溃的边缘。不同省份虚报数据。真实经济增速不到4%2)Less exports will hurt the already fragile Chinese economy = Growth in many western countries are saturated .With the presidency of Trump ,the Americans are going to impose more import duties on Chinese products to help their economy and to create more jobs in America but these increased import duties will badly hurt the cheap export industries .Since Chinese depends on their exports and has a major share on their G.D.P ,declining exports will make the Chinese government to cut spending on social welfare2、3)Aging population of China =Less workforceBecause of the one Child policy ,the growth rate and demands are going to go down ,With more and more people joining the above 70 camp ,the welfare spending and pension programes will dent a huge in the already dwindling reserves ***3.不断老龄化的中国人口，意味着劳动力减少由于中国以前实行独生子女政策，所以经济增速会放缓，需求也会减少。随着70岁以上人口越来越多，养老开支会造成巨大负担。4)China’s ghost citiesThis is one of 1000s of many hastily built ghost cities but no one is occupying it .That means the real estate markets are already down and this is how the Spanish economy collapsed in
.It is just a matter of time4、中国的鬼城这是中国很多鬼城中的一座，没有人居住这意味着，房地产市场已经在走下坡路。年，西班牙经济就是这样崩溃的。时间问题而已Katharina Sikorski, worked at IndiaAnswered WedChina will not be a next superpower – there is no need to become one. China already is a global superpower. India is not.While Indian media are full of “we will become superpower” and “India-China comparison” articles (and this has been a discourse well over a decade now), the Chinese media do not bother – India is not considered a competitor or an equal partner:中国不会成为下一个超级大国的中国没有必要啊，已经是超级大国了啊，而印度不是印度媒体大篇幅报道“我们会成为超级大国”，大肆对比印度和中国。过去10多年一直津津乐道。而中国媒体压根就不在乎，印度并未被视为竞争者Pavan Addanki, Indian forever !!Answered May 30As an Indian, I am fascinated by China and what is stands for in the modern world today. I keep reading stories of comparisons of India’s and China’s economy. Many have predicted that both will become bitter rivals in the near future and will aim to outdo the other. Some say that China already has a head start over India as it opened it’s economy very early, while India was late. Many say that China’s economy is many years ahead and it will take years for India to catch up with it.作为印度人，我对中国着迷了。中国代表当今现代世界。我一直读有关中印经济比较的文章。许多人预测，两国在近期会成为竞争对手，预测两国都会致力于超过对方。有些人说，中国对印度有着先发优势，因为中国很早就开放了经济，而印度动作迟缓。许多人说，中国经济领先很多年，印度需要很多年来追赶。But that depends on whether India really wants to catch up with China.这取决于印度是否真的想要追赶中国No one can accurately predict the future and how conditions will be (except if you are Nostradamus). But as an Indian, I can tell you one thing. I really don’t care if China stays ahead of India in the long run. As an Indian, I am focussed only on India and looking for ways and means to make my country a heaven. Our politicians are focussed on making India a better place for present and future generations. They work tirelessly day and night to ensure better governance and more opportunities and economic freedom for our citizens. What matters is not whether our neighbour is a super power or not. What matters is that the citizens of our country stay happy, healthy, peaceful and prosperous.没有人能准确预测未来。作为印度人，我要说自己真的不在乎中国是否领先印度。作为印度人，我只关注印度，致力于寻找方法让国家成为天堂。我关注的是我们的政客是否为子孙后代建设美好的国家。是否孜孜不倦地工作，是否为公民创造更多机会和经济自由。邻国是否是超级大国，对我来说并不重要。重要的是我们公民幸福健康、和平繁荣。Ashwin Kosaraju, Legal writer at Government of India (2016-present)Answered May 18Originally Answered: Who will be the next superpower, India or China?Technically China is already a superpower, (permanent veto member of the UN) and India is becoming a super power, in terms of military strength, naval capacity, army reserves, nuclear warheads, GDP, and so on. It will take quite a few years before we can catch up.从技术指标来说，中国已经是超级大国，是拥有否决权的联合国常任理事国从军事力量、海军实力、预备役和核弹头、GDP等指标来看，印度正崛起为超级大国要赶上去，我们还要很多年
本文仅代表作者观点，不代表百度立场。系作者授权百家号发表，未经许可不得转载。
百家号 最近更新：
简介: 我姑酌彼兕觥，维以不永伤
作者最新文章三泰虎日译文，历史上，消息不灵通的辩论围绕着哪个国家将会主宰21世纪展开。诺贝尔经济学奖获得者约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨也加入了这一毫无意义的争论，认为这必将是中国世纪，全然忘记就全球大国关系而言，过去的经验无法作为指导。仅仅因为大英帝国统治19世纪，以及美国主宰20世纪，许多分析家就在寻找21世纪的决定性力量。这并非是与历史无关的分析，而是全球力量平衡不断变化的动态。译文来源：三泰虎 外文标题：Why China can't be the super power dominating 21st century外文地址：/news/politics-and-nation/why-china-cant-be-the-super-power-dominating-21st-century/articleshow/.cms?utm_source=TOInewHP_ETlink&utm_medium=ABtest&utm_campaign=TOInewHPBy Sanjaya BaruA historically ill-informed debate has gone on about which country will dominate the 21st century. Entering this meaningless debate, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has added his weight to the view that this would be 'China's Century', forgetting that when it comes to global power relations, the past is no guide to the future.历史上，消息不灵通的辩论围绕着哪个国家将会主宰21世纪展开。诺贝尔经济学奖获得者约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨也加入了这一毫无意义的争论，认为这必将是中国世纪，全然忘记就全球大国关系而言，过去的经验无法作为指导。Merely because Imperial Britain dominated the 19th century and the United States dominated the 20th, many analysts have been in search of the defining power of the 21st. This is not just an ahistorical analysis, but it is innocent of the changing dynamics of global power equations.仅仅因为大英帝国统治19世纪，以及美国主宰20世纪，许多分析家就在寻找21世纪的决定性力量。这并非是与历史无关的分析，而是全球力量平衡不断变化的动态。Britain's dominance of the 19th century was on account of the fact that it was not only the locus of economic activity based on new technologies, but was also the dominant military power. With the decline of Britain, the defeat of Germany and the end of colonialism and the liberation of hitherto colonised nations, European nations saw their power recede in the 20th century. On the other hand, the rise of the US as a techno-economic and military power, and of global alliances that enabled it to project power around the world, ensured that America emerged as last century's dominant power.英国对19世纪的主导是基于这样的事实，即英国不仅是新技术支撑下经济活动的所在地，而且是占主导地位的军事大国。随着英国的衰弱，德国的战败，殖民主义的终结以及被殖民国家的解放，欧洲国家见证了他们力量在20世纪的衰退。另一方面，美国的崛起不仅是作为技术经济大国，而且是军事大国，以及全球性的联盟使其能够把力量投送到世界各地，确保美国崛起为上个世纪的主导力量。The 21st century is, however, different. With the end of colonialism and the rupture of neo-colonial dependencies, thanks to the rise of several new post-colonial states around the world — called emerging economies — global prosperity and power have become more dispersed.然而，21世纪是不同的。随着殖民主义的终结和新殖民主义依赖关系的破裂，多亏了几个后殖民国家——新兴经济体——的崛起，全球繁荣和力量变得更为分散了。No one nation can hope to dominate the world quite the way that imperial Britain or post-War US did. Thus, the proponents of the view that one or another nation — the US or China — will dominate the world seems oblivious to the multiplicity of the sources of prosperity and power that are shaping an increasingly 'multipolar' world.没有一个国家有希望以大英帝国或者二战后美国那样的方式主宰世界。因此，支持者认为某个或者另一个国家——美国或中国——将主宰世界的看法，似乎无视塑造多极化世界繁荣和力量的多样性。Consider first the shortcoming of the purely statistical argument. Merely because China is set to overtake the US as the world's largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, Stiglitz, like many, has raised alarm and asked America to wake up. PPP estimates are helpful for a variety of reasons. But they do not define the real dimension of that middle P — power. China's purchasing power is enormous and rising but there just isn't enough purchase yet in that kind of power.首先考虑纯粹的统计论据。仅仅因为中国PPP将超过美国成为世界最大经济体，斯蒂格利茨跟许多人一样，也做出了警告，要求美国开始警觉。出于各种原因，PPP的数据估计是有帮助的，但是并未诠释中间那个P（力量）的真正维度。中国的购买力是巨大的，且在不断上升，但是尚未表现出足够的购买力量。Britain and the US dominated their centuries because the former had its colonies and the latter its allies. China has a long way to go in acquiring that kind of military power and global political influence.英国和美国之所以能主宰各自世纪，是因为前者建立了殖民地，而后者建立了联盟。中国在取得这种军事力量和全球政治影响方面还有很长一段路要走。(The writer is Director for Geo-economics and Strategy, International Institute for Strategic Studies)以下是《印度经济时报》读者的评论：译文来源：三泰虎 /.htmlTruth Sach (delhi)But India's growth story is steady and can't rule out our supremacy against China in 20- 30 years.印度的发展是稳定的，不能排除在二三十年内取得对中国的霸权。&Deepak Kumar (delhi)because their good time is over and India good time has come.因为他们的好日子已经结束，印度的好日子已经来临&narasa.rao24 (Hyd)A MODIfied India is standing in the way.一个莫迪化的印度挡在了前面&1&&
微信关注“西诺网”
每天分享有趣的事儿君，已阅读到文档的结尾了呢~~
国外网友评论：印度要成为经济体育超级大国——所有资料文档均为本人悉心收集，全部是文档中的精品，绝对值得下载收藏！
扫扫二维码，随身浏览文档
手机或平板扫扫即可继续访问
国外网友评论：印度要成为经济体育超级大国
举报该文档为侵权文档。
举报该文档含有违规或不良信息。
反馈该文档无法正常浏览。
举报该文档为重复文档。
推荐理由：
将文档分享至：
分享完整地址
文档地址：
粘贴到BBS或博客
flash地址：
支持嵌入FLASH地址的网站使用
html代码：
&embed src='/DocinViewer--144.swf' width='100%' height='600' type=application/x-shockwave-flash ALLOWFULLSCREEN='true' ALLOWSCRIPTACCESS='always'&&/embed&
450px*300px480px*400px650px*490px
支持嵌入HTML代码的网站使用
您的内容已经提交成功
您所提交的内容需要审核后才能发布，请您等待！
3秒自动关闭窗口}